Biogeography, Ecology, & Modelling (BEAM)
Climate change & biodiversity
Our research delves into the complex relationship between climate change and biodiversity, examining how shifts in temperature, rainfall, and extreme events shape ecosystems and influence species survival.
We investigate historical patterns, such as the extinction of Australia’s megafauna, to understand how species responded to past climate variability. Using advanced tools like global circulation models and species distribution models, we develop climate-change metrics to predict how species might adapt to future changes, migrate to new habitats, or face increased extinction risks.
Our work has identified the role of novel and disappearing climates in species adaptability, highlighted regions where ecosystems are most vulnerable, and improved methodologies to model species range shifts under changing conditions. These insights provide a strong foundation for guiding conservation strategies and maintaining ecosystem stability in a rapidly evolving world.
Main contributions
Saltré, F., et al, (2024). Environmental conditions associated with initial northern expansion of anatomically modern humans. Nature Communications, 15 (1): 4364.
Hamilton, R., et al, (2024). Forest mosaics, not savanna corridors, dominated in Southeast Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121 (1) e2311280120.
Herrando-Perez, S., & Saltré, F., (2024). Estimating extinction time using radiocarbon dates. Quaternary Geochronology, 79: 101489.
Saltré, F., et al, (2019). Climate-human interaction associated with southeast Australian megafauna extinction patterns. Nature Communications, 10:5311.
Shabani, F., et al, (2019). Climate-driven shifts in the distribution of koala-browse species from the Last Interglacial to the near future. Ecography 42: 1587-1599.
Fordham, D., et al, (2018). Why decadal to century timescale palaeoclimate data are needed to explain present-day patterns of biological diversity and change. Global Change Biology, 24: 1371-1381.
Saltré, F., et al, (2016). Climate change not to blame for the late Quaternary megafauna extinctions in Australia. Nature Communications, 7(1): 10511.
Lurgi, M., et al, (2015). Modelling range dynamics under global change: which framework and why. Method in Ecology & Evolution, 6(3): 247-256.
Saltré, F., et al, (2015). How climate, migration ability, and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech. Global Change Biology, 21(2): 897-910.
Saltré, F., et al, (2013). Climate or migration: what limited European beech postglacial colonisation. Global Ecology & Biogeography, 22(11): 1217-1227.