Biogeography, Ecology, & Modelling (BEAM)
Book chapters
1
White, L.C., Saltré, F., Bradshaw, C.J.A., & Austin, J.J. (2023) Diagnosing a synchronous extinction, in The history and mystery of the Thylacine (B. Holmes, G. Linnards, eds.), CSIRO publishing, Clayton, Victoria.
2
Laviano, F., Saltré, F., Arnold, L.J., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. (2023) Accounting for uncertainties when mapping past species range shifts. The case of Neanderthal in Settlement, Territory and Landscape dynamics: assessments and prospects in spatial archaeology. The history and mystery of the Thylacine (B. Holmes, G. Linnards, eds.), CSIRO publishing, Clayton, Victoria.
Journal articles
2025
51
Beaman, J.E., Gates, K., Saltré, F., Hogg, C.J., Belov, K., Burke da Silva, K., Beheregaray, L.B., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. A guide for developing demo-genetic models to simulate genetic rescue. Evolutionary Applications. (in press)
50
Van der Meersch, V., Armstrong, E., Mouillot, F., Duputie, A., Davi, H., Saltré, F., & Chuine, I. Paleaeorecords reveal biological mechanisms crucial for reliable species range shift projections amid rapid climate change. Ecology Letters.
2024
49
Hamnett, P.W., Saltré, F., Page, B., Tarran, M., Korcz, M., Fielder, K., Andrews, L., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Stochastic population models to identify optimal and cost-effective harvest strategies for feral pig eradication. Ecosphere. 15(12): e70082
48
Bradshaw, C.J.A., Saltré, F., Crabtree, S.A., Reepmeyer, C., & Moutsiou, D. Small populations of palaeolithic humans in Cyprus hunted endemic megafauna to extinction. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 291: 20240967.
47
Saltré, F., Chadoeuf, J., Higham, T., Ochocki, M., Block, S., Bunney, E., Llamas, B., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Environmental conditions associated with initial northern expansion of anatomically modern humans. Nature Communications. 15(1): 4364
46
Bradshaw, C.J.A., Reepmeyer, Saltré, F., Agapiou, A., Kassianidou, V., Demesticha, S., Zomeni, Z., Polidorou, M., & Moutsiou, T. Demographic models predict end-Pleistocene arrival and rapid expansion of pre-agropastoralist humans in Cyprus. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 121(21): e2318293121.
45
Bradshaw, C.J.A., Hulme, P.E., Hudgins, E.J., Leung, B., Kourantidou, M., Courtois, P., Turbelin, A., McDermott, S.M., Lee, K., Ahmed, D.A., Latombe, G., Bang, A., Bodey, T.W., Haubrock, P.J., Saltré, F., & Courchamp, F. Damage costs from invasive species exceed management expenditure in nations experiencing lower economic activity. Ecological Economics. 220:108166
44
Norman, K., Bradshaw, C.J.A., Saltré, F., Clarkson, C., Cohen, T.J., Hiscock, P., Jones, T., & Boesl, F. Sea level rise drowned a vast habitable area of north-western Australia driving long-term cultural change. Quaternary Science Reviews.324:108418
43
Hamilton, R., Amano, N., Bradshaw, C.J.A., Saltré, F., Patalano, R., Penny, D., Stevenson, J., Wolfhagen, J., & Roberts, P. Forest mosaics, not savanna corridors, dominated in Southeast Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 121(1):e2311280120.
42
Champreux, A., Saltré, F., Traylor, W., Hickler, T., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. How to map biomes: Quantitative comparison and review of biome‐mapping methods. Ecological Monograph. 94(3):e1615.
41
Herrando-Perez, S., & Saltré, F. Estimating extinction time using radiocarbon dates. Quaternary Geochronology. 79:101489.
2023
40
Mathwin, R., Wassens, S., Gibbs, M.S., Young, J., Ye, Q., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Stochastic metapopulation dynamics of a threatened amphibian to improve water delivery. Ecosphere. 15(1): e4741.
39
Doherty, S., Saltré, F., Llewelyn, J., Strona, G., Williams, S., & Bradshaw, C.J.A., (accepted). Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems. Global Change Biology.
38
Llewelyn, J., Strona, G., Dickman, C., Greenville, A., Wardle, G., Lee, M.S.Y., Doherty, S., Shabani, F., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C.J.A., (in press). Predicting predator-prey interactions in terrestrial endotherms using random forest. Ecography
37
Mitchell, D.R., Bradshaw, C.J.A., Saltré, F., Weisbecker, V. Differential developmental rates and demographics in red kangaroo populations separated by the dingo barrier fence. Journal of Mammalogy.
36
Bradshaw, C.J.A., Crabtree, S.A., White, D., Ulm, S., Bird, M.I., Williams, A.J., & Saltré, F., . Directionally supervised cellular automaton for the initial peopling of Sahul. Quaternary Science Reviews. 303: 107971.
35
Mathwin, R., Wassens, S., Gibbs, M.S., Young, J., Ye, Q., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Modelling the effects of water regulation on the population viability of a threatened amphibian. Ecosphere. 14(1): e4379
2022
34
Bossley, M., Steiner, A., Parra, G.J., Saltré, F., & Peters, K.J. Dredging activity in a highly urbanized estuary did not affect the occurrence of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins and long-nosed fur seals. Marine Pollution Bulletin , 184, 114183.
33
Peters, K.J., Stockin, K., & Saltré, F. On the rise: climate change will cause New Zealand indicator species to seek higher latitudes. Ecological Indicators, 142, 109235.
32
Llewelyn, J., Strona, G., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Building terrestrial ecological network models from incomplete data. Ecography.
2021
31
Bradshaw, C.J.A., Ehrlich, P.R., Beattie, A., Ceballos, G., Crist, E., Diamond, J., Dirzo, R., Ehrlich, A.R., Harte, J., Harte M-A., Pyke, G., Raven, P.H., Ripple, W.J, Saltré, F., Turnbull, C., Wackernagel, M., & Blumstein, D.T. Commentary: Underestimating the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future. Frontiers in Conservation Science, 2:700869.
30
Bradshaw, C.J.A., Johnson, C.N., Llewelyn, J., Weisbecker, V., Strona, G., & Saltré, F. Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul’s megafauna. eLife, 10: e63870
29
Venning, K.R.W., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Predicting feral cat reduction targets and costs on large islands using stochastic population models. Conservation Science and Practice, 3(8): e448.
28
Peters, K.J., Saltré, F., Friedrich, T., Jacob, Z., Wood, R., McDowell, M., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Addendum: FosSahul 2.0, an updated database for the Late Quaternary fossil records of Sahul. Scientific Data, 8:133
27
Crabtree, S.A., White, D., Bradshaw, C.J.A., Saltré, F., Williams, A.J., Beaman, R.J., Bird, M.I., & Ulm, S. Landscape rules define optimal super-highways for the first peopling of Sahul. Nature Human Behavior, 5:1303-1313
26
Bradshaw, C.J.A., Ehrlich, P.R., Beattie, A., Ceballos, G., Crist, E., Diamond, J., Dirzo, R., Ehrlich, A.R., Harte, J., Harte M-A., Pyke, G., Raven, P.H., Ripple, W.J, Saltré, F., Turnbull, C., Wackernagel, M., & Blumstein, D.T. Underestimating the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future. Frontiers in Conservation Science, 1:615419
25
Jarvie, S., Worthy, T.H., Saltré, F., Scoffield, P.R., Seddon, P.J., & Cree, A. Using fossils to model the future: distribution of climate suitability for the last rhynchocephalian (tuatara). Journal of Biogeography, 48(6):1489-1502
24
Bradshaw, C.J.A., Norman, K., Ulm, S., Williams, A.N., Clarkson, C., Chadoeuf, J., Lin, S.C., Jacobs, Z., Roberts, R.G., Bird, M.I., Weyrich, L.S., Haberle, S.G., O’Connor, S., Llamas, B., Cohen, T.J., Friedrich, T., Veth, P., Leavesley, M., & Saltré, F. Stochastic models support rapid peopling of Late Pleistocene Sahul. Nature Communication, 12: 2440
2019
23
Saltré, F., Chadoeuf, J., Peters, K.J., Friedrich, T., McDowell, M., Ulm, S., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Climate-human interaction caused southeast Australian megafauna extinction. Nature Communications, 10:5311.
2019
22
Peters, K.J., Saltré, F., Friedrich, T., Jacob, Z., Wood, R., McDowell, M., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. FosSahul 2.0: an updated database for the Late Quaternary fossil records of Sahul. Scientific Data, 6:272.
2019
21
Roy-Dufresne, E., Saltré, F., Cooke, B., Mellin, C., Mutze, G., Cox, T., & Fordham, D.A. Modelling the distribution of a wide-ranging invasive species using the sampling efforts of expert and citizen scientists. Ecology and Evolution, 9: 11053-11063
2019
20
Shabani, F., Mohsen, A., Peters, K.J., Haberle, S., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Climate-driven shifts in the distribution of koala browse species from the Last Interglacial to the near future. Ecography, 42: 1587-1599.
2019
19
Bradshaw, C.J.A., Ulm, S., Williams, A.N., Bird, M.I., Roberts, R.G., Jacobs, Z., Laviano, F., Weyrich, L.S., Friedrich, T., Norman, K., & Saltré, F. Minimum founding populations of the first people to colonise Australia. Nature in Ecology and Evolution, 3: 1057-1063.
2019
18
Roy-Dufresne, E., Lurgi, M., Brown, S., Wells, K., Cooke, B., Mutze, G., Peacock, D., Cassey, P., Berman, D., Brook, B.W., Campbell, S., Cox, T., Daly, J., Dunk, I., Elsworth, P., Fletcher, D., Forsyth, D., Hocking, G., Kovac, K-J., Kovaliski, J., Leane, M., Low, B., Malcolm, K., Matthews, J., McPhee, S., Mellin, C., Mooney, T., Moseby, K., Richardson, B., Schneider, K., Schwarz, E., Sinclair, R., Strive, T., Triulcio, F., West, P., Saltré, F., & Fordham, D. A. The Australian National Rabbit Database: 50 years of population monitoring of an invasive species. Ecology, 100(7): e02750.
2019
17
Bird, M.I., Condie, S.A., O’Grady, D., O’Connor, S., Reepmeyera, C., Ulm, S., Zegaa, M., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Early human settlement of Sahul was not an accident. Nature Scientific Report, 9: 8220
2019
2018
16
White, L.C.†, Saltré, F.†, Bradshaw, C.J.A., & Austin, J.J. High-quality fossil dates support a synchronous late-Holocene extinction of devils and thylacines in mainland Australia. Biology letters, 14: 20170642. († = equal contribution)
15
Fordham, D. A., Saltré, F., Mellin, C., Brown, S., & Wigley, T.M.L. Why decadal to century timescale paleoclimate data is needed to explain present-day patterns of biological diversity and change. Global Change Biology, 24: 1371-1381.
2016
13
Fordham, D.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Alroy, J., Saltré, F., Wigley, T. M., & Brook, B.W. Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies. Nature Climate Change, 6: 909-916
12
Rodriguez-Rey, M., Herrando-Péres, S., Brook, B.W., Saltré, F., Alroy, J., Beeton, N., Bird, M.I., Cooper, A., Gillespie, R., Jabobs, Z., Johnson, C.N., Miller, G.H., Prideaux, G.J., Roberts, R.G., Turney, C.S.M., & Bradshaw C.J.A. FosSahul: a comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul's Quaternary vertebrates. Nature Scientific Data, 3: 160053.
11
Block, S., Saltré, F., Rodriguez-Rey, M., Fordham, D.A., Unkel, I., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Where to dig for fossils: combining climate-envelope, taphonomy and discovery models. PLoS One, 11: e0151090.
10
Johnson, C.N., Alroy, J., Beeton, N., Bird, M., Brook, B.W., Cooper, A., Gillespie, R., Herrando-Péres, S., Jabobs, Z., Miller, G.H., Prideaux, G., Roberts, R., Rodriguez-Rey, M., Saltré, F., Turney, C.S.M., & Bradshaw C.J.A. What caused extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna of Sahul? Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 283: 20152399
9
Saltré, F., Rodriguez-Rey, M., Brook, B.W., Johnson, C.N., Turney, C.S.M., Alroy, J., Cooper, A., Beeton, N., Bird, M.I., Fordham, D.A., Gillespie, R., Herrando-Pérez, S., Jabobs, Z., Miller, G.H., Nogués-Bravo, D., Prideaux, G.J., Roberts, R.G., & Bradshaw C.J.A. Climate change not to blame for late Quaternary megafauna extinctions in Australia. Nature Communications, 7: 10511.
2015
8
Rodriguez-Rey, M., Herrando-Pérez, S., Gillespie, R., Jabobs, Z., Saltré, F., Brook, B.W., Prideaux, G.J., Roberts, R.G., Cooper, A., Alroy, J., Miller, G.H., Bird, M.I., Johnson, C.N., Beeton, N., Turney, C.S.M., & Bradshaw C.J.A. Criteria for assessing the quality of Middle Pleistocene to Holocene vertebrate fossil ages. Quaternary Geochronology, 30: 69-79
7
Saltré, F., Brook, B.W., Rodriguez-Rey, M., Cooper, A., Johnson, C.N., Turney, C.S.M., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Uncertainties in specimen dates constrain the choice of statistical method to infer extinction time. Quaternary Sciences Review, 112: 128-137.
6
Lurgi, M., Brook, B.W., Saltré, F., & Fordham, D. A. Modelling species’ range dynamics: Which model and why? Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 6: 247-256.
5
Saltré, F., Duputié, A., Gaucherel, C., & Chuine, I. How climate, migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech. Global Change Biology, 21: 897-910.
2014
4
Gavin, D.G., Dobrowski, S., Fitzpatrick, M., Gugger, P., Heath, K., Hu, F.S., Rodriguez-Sanchez, F., Ashcroft, M.B., Bartlein, P.J., Blois, J., Carstens, B., Davis, E., de Lafontaine, G., Edwards, M.E, Hampe, A., Henne, P., Herring, E., Holden, Z.A.,Kong, W-S., Liu, J., Magri, D., Matzke, N.J., McGlone, M.S., Saltré, F., Stigall, A.L., Tsai, Y.E., & Williams, J.W. Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models, and phylogeography. New Phytologist, 204: 37-54.
2013
3
Saltré, F., St Amant, R., Brewer, S., Gritti, E.S, Gaucherel, C., Davis, B.A.S, & Chuine, I. Climate or migration: what limited European beech post-glacial colonization? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22: 1217-1227.
2
Saltré, F., Bentaleb, I., Favier, C., & Jolly, D. The role of temperature on treeline migration for an eastern African Mountain during the Last Glacial Maximum. Climatic Change, 118: 901-918.
Saltré, F., Peters, K.J., Rogers, D.J., Chadoeuf, J., Weisbecker, V., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Balancing overpopulation and conservation targets to optimize koala management strategies. Authorea. doi:10.22541/au.173271483.38842713/v1
Nitschke, M.C., Williams, A.N., Ingrey, S.D., Griffiths, B., Pitt, N., Russell, L., Ulm, S., Beller, K., Hore, J.R., Bird, M.I., Fatima, S.H., McNiven, I.J., Saltré, F., Bashford, A., Wilson, C., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Stochastic models indicate rapid smallpox spread and mass mortality of Indigenous Australians after colonial exposure. Research Square. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-5683492/v1
Williams, A.N., Tobler, R., Griffiths, B., Ulm, S., Nitschke, M.C., Bird, M.I., Ingrey, S.D., Saltré, F., Beller, K., McNiven, I.J., Pitt, N., Russell, L., Wilson, C., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Large size of the Australian Indigenous population prior to its massive decline following European invasion. Research Square. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-5127915/v1
Llewelyn, J.S., Long, J.A., Cloutier, R., Clement, A.M., Strona, G., Saltré, F., Lee, Msy, L., Choo, B., Vanhaesebroucke, O., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Trait-space disparity in fish communities spanning 380 million years from the Late Devonian to present. bioRχiv. doi:10.1101/2024.08.29.610219
Bird, M.I., Brand, M., Comley, R., Hadeen, X., Jacobs, Z., Rowe, C., Saltré, F., Wurster, C.M., Zwart, C., & Bradshaw, C.J.A. Heinrich events drove major intensification of the Indo-Australian monsoon over the last 150,000 years. Research Square. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3998035/v1