Biogeography, Ecology, & Modelling (BEAM)
Ngura Nandamari

Thomas Keeble

I'm a PhD student investigating how Indigenous fire management shapes forest-grassland boundaries through computational modelling, while also working as a Research Fellow in the Forest Hydrology Research Group at the University of Melbourne.
My path to this research has been shaped by previous roles as a field ecologist and outdoor educator, experiences that deepened my appreciation for how Indigenous peoples have actively managed landscapes for millennia rather than simply living within them. I'm drawn to the technical challenges of ecological modelling as a tool for decolonial practice—using Western empirical methods to better understand and validate Indigenous knowledge systems.
Supervisors: A/Prof Gary Sheridan (Uni Melbourne), Prof Michael-Shawn Fletcher (Uni Melbourne), Dr Frédérik Saltré (BEAM), Prof George Perry (Uni Auckland)
My research
My research aims to contribute to improved recognition of Indigenous landscape management by developing methods that can quantify and distinguish human fire effects from climate-driven processes.​
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PhD project title: “Sharp boundaries, complex origins: The role of anthropogenic fire in forest-grassland ecotone dynamics”​
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What's the problem? We don't really understand how people’s use of fire to manage landscapes has affected where forests end and grasslands begin. These boundaries between forest and grassland are really important for ecosystems, but it's hard to tell whether changes are caused by climate, soils, “natural” fires, or human fire management—they're all mixed together in the real world.​
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Why is this hard to study? These landscape changes happen slowly (over decades or centuries), and you can't exactly run experiments where you burn half a landscape one way and half another way to see what happens. Also, we don't have good methods to study how human decision-making about when and where to burn actually translates into ecological effects.​
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What am I doing about it? I’m building computer models that can simulate these processes over long time periods. But first, I need to figure out three key things: 1) What actually drives people's decisions about when and where to use fire, 2) How complex do these decision-making processes need to be in a computer model to get realistic results, and 3) How I go about connecting human fire decisions to what actually happens to the vegetation.
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How will this help? Once I have a working model, I can run "experiments" on the computer—testing different scenarios like "what if people didn’t burn at all?" or "what if climate was different?" This will help us understand how Indigenous fire management (which has been going on for thousands of years) actually shapes landscapes, and could inform better land management decisions today.​​
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The big picture: I’m essentially trying to untangle the role of humans in shaping some of our most important ecosystems, using computer modelling since it's near impossible to study directly in the real world.
My interests
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Ecological modelling
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Decolonial science
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Indigenous fire
Selected publications
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Keeble, T., Lyell, C.S, Lane, P., Nyman, P., Noske, P.J. and Sheridan, G. (2024). A landscape scale model to predict post-fire debris flow impact zones. Geomorphology, 455, 109175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109175
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Lyell, C.S, Nattala, U., Keeble, T., Vella, E.M., Joshi, R.C., Joukhader, Z., Garber, J., Mutch, S.J., Gazzard, T., Duff, T. and Sheridan, G. (2024). Forecasting dead fuel moisture content below forest canopies–A seven-day forecasting system. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 358, 110217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110217
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Harrison, M.A., Noske, P.J., Lyell, C.S., Moon, K., Prior, D.P., Sheridan, G.J., and Keeble, T.(2025). Spaceborne LiDAR-derived height-variable forest wind reduction factors (WRF) for improved wildfire spread modelling. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 372, 110639. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110639
Fun facts
When I'm not modelling fire-vegetation dynamics or analysing hydrology data, you'll find me exploring the landscapes I study through rock climbing, bikepacking, trail running, surfing, and hiking, or working on woodworking and sewing projects at home.​
Although I’m generally obsessed with (climbing) rocks, I don’t think I could ever be a geologist